At the moment, it really is all to play for in the Sky Bet Championship after 12 games, or just over a quarter of the season gone.
Ten points separates the middle of the table centred around a trio of teams (Queens Park Rangers, Leeds and Wolves) on 16 points and Norwich who head the table on 26 points. Stacking up behind them in the last automatic promotion place is Newcastle United, with only five points separating the Magpies from Birmingham in the last promotion play-off place.
At the foot of the table are South Yorkshire side Rotherham on six points with Cardiff safe in 21st on 11 points. At that end of the table in 20th place are recent Premier League relegation side Aston Villa who are only two points away from the mire of relegation.
The thing is, how will it all pan out come next May, who’ll be where when the season ends?
Here at The72, we are going to be following the Sky Bet Championship through the rest of the season and projecting what the final table will look like. To accomplish this, we will be using six-game form points per game (pp/g) total to project forward to an end of season total.
This will then be plotted onto a table (below) where the following places in the table have been finalised using a 17-season average points needed to finish 2nd (87 points), 6th (74 points), 12th (61 points) and 22nd (41 points).
Projected end of 2016/17 table for the Sky Bet Championship – after game day 12
Obviously dips and rises in form will be seen over the next six or so games and some teams will improve whilst others drop away. For example, it is inconceivable that Norwich can maintain a ‘six game form’ of 2.5 points per game from now until the end of the season to end with a record 111 point haul and 11 point margin of victory in claiming promotion back to the Premier League at the first time of asking.
Equally, it is inconceivable that Rotherham will continue to throw away points like used Christmas wrapping paper and gain only another six points over the rest of this season. They will hit better form and gain both a better points per game average and overall points total.
Things to think about – after game day 12:
- Rotherham need to earn 1.05 points per game over the rest of the season to just scrape past the 47 point average for the last relegation place. Their current six game form total is 0.17 points per game.
- Villa need to earn 1.85 points per game over the rest of the season to fight their way into the reckoning for the promotion play-offs. Their current six game form total is 0.83 points per game.
- Blackburn, who are projected this early to finish just above the relegation zone on 48 points, need to hit a run of form that gives them a return of 1.91 points per game to reach the final play-off place. Their current six game form total is 1.16 points per game.
- Mid-table Leeds are the division’s 4th rated form team over their last six games with a return of 2 points per game. In order to qualify for the last play-off place, the Whites could afford a drop in current form that would return 1.70 points per game and they’d still hit the 74 point average that has seen teams over the last 17 Championship/First Division seasons end in sixth position.
