Championship

Middlesbrough: all avenues lead to Jordan Rhodes?

Patrick Bamford lit up Middlesbrough games last season, making 40 appearances (six as substitute) and racking up 3,005 minutes of play (72.6% available game time). The young, on-loan Chelsea star scored 17 goals for Boro and ended up winning the Sky Bet Championship Player of the Year Award. Middlesbrough wanted to retain the young attacker’s services for the upcoming campaign, but the hopes of Teeside were dashed when Bamford decided to sign a new three-year contract at Chelsea before joining London neighbours Crystal Palace on a season-long loan deal. Still, thankful of his time at Middlesbrough, Bamford took time to thank the Boro fans on Twitter,

With a pursuit of Bamford coming off the rails, Middlesbrough turned their attention to courting the services of Blackburn’s Scottish striker Jordan Rhodes. Amid claims that Blackburn turned down a Middlesbrough request to speak to Rhodes, the striker himself requested that he be able to speak to the Teesiders over a possible move for a reputed £12m.

The question that I would like to ask is this, with the demise of the attempts to entice Patrick Bamford to take a dip in the Riverside, is another worth exploring the one that leads to Rhodes?

The numbers game: Patrick Bamford [red] vs Jordan Rhodes [blue]

Rhodes [blue] vs Bamford [red]

Looking purely at the graph tell you why Middlesbrough are likely interested in Jordan Rhodes as a ready-made replacement for Patrick Bamford. Almost everything that Bamford did last season (in red) is bettered by what Rhodes did (in blue). However, I’ll start with the exceptions, those things where the on-loan Chelsea player bested the performance of the current Blackburn striker. Patrick Bamford has a higher number of shots on target per 90 (1.3) than does Jordan Rhodes (1.1) and he also has a higher shots on-target (SoTa) percentage than does the Blackburn striker. Of Bamford’s 2014/15 total of 102 shots, 44 were classed as ‘on-target’ – giving the youngster a shooting accuracy of 43.13%. In comparison, Jordan Rhodes had a total 135 shots at goal, with 44 being classed as ‘on-target’ – giving the Scot a shooting accuracy of (32.59%). Apart from Bamford having a higher ratio of shorter pass attempts than Rhodes (95.87% to 95%) and completing more dribbles per/90 than Rhodes (0.5 to 0.2), it’s typically Blue all the way on the graphic.

Starting with the number of passes per 90 minutes that end up as shooting chances for teammates (Shot Assist Passes), Rhodes leads this with per/90 compared to Bamford’s 0.8 per/90. Whilst both figures aren’t too dissimilar, it does seem to indicate that Rhodes is a better provider of chances for teammates. Possession-wise, he is also a tidier player, Rhodes only losing 3 possessions per/90 as opposed to the 4.9 possession losses of Patrick Bamford. Offensively, Jordan Rhodes really did have the Indian sign over Patrick Bamford. When it came to the number of contested headed balls won per 90 minutes, Rhodes led the way with 1.9 headers won p/90; with Bamford only winning 1.3 – this showing that Jordan Rhodes is stronger in the air.

For strikers though, the premium currency is goals, of that there is little doubt and it is here that Jordan Rhodes once again takes the lead. Last season, over the 2014/15 Championship campaign, Rhodes marked 21 goals compared to the 17 of Bamford and a lot of this can be attributed to two other areas where the Scot outshone the on-loan Chelsea man: a higher shots per 90 score and a better Goals/Shots on-target conversion rate. Over a typical 90 minutes, Jordan Rhodes takes 3.5 shots as opposed to 3.1 from Bamford. Obviously the number of shots taken is important because if players don’t shoot, then they don’t score – it is as simple as that. Now whilst Bamford has a better shooting accuracy than that of Jordan Rhodes; Rhodes has a much better conversion rate of goals from on-target shots. When considering this important conversion rate, Rhodes has a much superior conversion rate of goals from on-target shots of 47.73% as opposed to a much lower figure of 38.63% from Patrick Bamford. What this suggests is is that Rhodes is either a better placer of the shot or works himself into marginally better positions than his counterpart in Bamford.

Summary

So, should Middlesbrough fans be mourning a ‘chance lost‘ in not being able to secure Patrick Bamford for another season up at The Riverside in Teeside? No, I don’t think that they will be if the can capture a proven goalscorer (46 in two Championship seasons) such as Jordan Rhodes – even if the purchase price is the reputed £12m mentioned in the Press. With Rhodes leading the line, it seems that Boro will have a much more rounded and, dare I say it, a better upgrade on what they had leading their line last season. Middlesbrough fans, don’t mourn the loss of Patrick Bamford; rather salivate over the service he will get from Lee Tomlin, Grant Leadbitter and Albert Adomah.

Player data derived from WhoScored profiles for Jordan Rhodes and Patrick Bamford

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