The hard work began way back in the July 2014 pre-season for the whole of the Football League but for 6 sides it is only just finishing. The Play-Off Finals are a culmination of 48 gruelling games of football and in the end it’s all or nothing. Win at Wembley this weekend and the season was a success, lose and it’s back to the drawing board with a good season simply confined to the record books.
Southend United v Wycombe Wanderers
Two sides with contrasting styles meet in the first Wembley final of the weekend. Southend are a dogged defensive unit with a big target man in Barry Corr whilst Wycombe are a side that play a much more open game. Wanderers were the joint 2nd top scoring side in League Two this season whilst Southend had the 3rd strongest defence.
The Shrimpers were incredibly hard to beat at Roots Hall this season. Goalkeeper David Bentley conceded his first goal in 12 starts at home in the second leg against Stevenage but United got through 3-1 in extra-time. Worryingly Barry Corr thundered his penalty against the bar in added time which would have sent them through without playing an extra 30 minutes and it’s big moments like that which Southend are going to need to make the most at Wembley.
Whilst Southend were incredibly strong at home the same cannot be said about their defense on the road. The Shrimpers conceded just 9 goals at home but that shoots up to massive 29 away from Roots Hall which ranks their away defensive record as joint 9th compared to Wycombe who conceded just 20 goals in 23 away games, joint 1st. This is technically an away game so on that basis I have to side with Wanderers who won a massive 47 of their 84 points away from home putting them at the top of the away table.
Wycombe were shoddy at Adams Park, they finish 11th in the home table but they still managed to beat Southend 4-1 at home and drew at Roots Hall so they have the advantage on head to heads. In fact the Chairboys were one of just two sides to score 2 goals at Roots Hall in the league this season it the 2-2 draw in March and that serves as yet more confidence in Wycombe.
Only 6 of Southend’s 24 league triumphs saw both sides score. I think they need to keep a clean sheet if they are to win this in 90 minutes and I simply can’t see them doing that against Wycombe who were the joint 2nd top scorers in League Two this season and have a terrific away record losing just 2 of 23 away games.
Southend will point to Phil Brown’s experience as a huge help and that is true but there’s too much to like about Wycombe’s chances in my books. The Chairboys had the best record against fellow Play-Off sides this season; W3 D2 L1 compared to Southend’s W1 D2 L3. In 25 League Two Play-Off campaigns the 4th place side have won 13 times compared to a meagre 3 wins for 5th place finishers. Wycombe finished 4th. Southend finished 5th. The stats are all on Gareth Ainsworth’s side here and they are a bigger price, dig in.
Wycombe to win – 19/10 Betvictor
