Football Ratings are a great way to get an edge on your betting, and beat the bookies. In this download, there are several key areas we look at which will be explained. These will be available for download weekly, for free (although will be in a new The72 Newsletter – coming soon!) We’ll give you a quick-run down of the basics and some basic theory, but once the season evolves a little more, I’ll start posting some systems that we used last year.
A private group, pre-dating The72, of around 40 people used these ratings all of last year and came up with great systems and insights into using the ratings to the best effect. As of October 1st, I shall be publishing our 3-year old Horse Racing Sheets as a private service. This is a small spreadsheet, but is an insight into my real work with racing and will hopefully develop some betting styles of some clued-up punters.
Excel Free Download: The72 Ratings – 2013-09-07
Available online here: http://sdrv.ms/18HKY3a
Please Follow @LegeenJoe on Twitter. Joe Scutt is the creator of the spreadsheet who I’ve known for a few years through a horse racing group. If you like the resource, please give him a follow.
So, in the Free Football Ratings, we have:
- Both Teams to Score Stats. In this area, we look at all games, or just league games as the first options. Then, it is split into 3 sections: BTTS% which is the % of the time the team is involved in a game where both teams score; Goals Scored is the average goals scored in the games; and Goals conceded does what it says on the tin.
Here, it is important to look for high BTTS% for both Home and Away teams. If both are 100%, it shows that the team have the ability to score, but potentially lack the defense which enables their opponents to score – Good for a BTTS bet!So this week, BTTS 100% meetings are: Cheltenham v Portsmouth & Fleetwood Town v Torquay.It is also prudent to look to the far-right side of the sheet where we have last years stats on club meetings. Cheltenham did not play Portsmouth last year, so we have no historic data. However, Fleetwoods match ended in a 0-0 draw.
- Shots on Target – Raw data and %. Whilst there is an upcoming shots-on-target market, this is really to help consider other markets. This will become more apparent with systems published last in the season.
- Recent Form. This is an area that will interest many fans. It shows the biased for home-games, which when you consider a Level-Stake approach to backing home teams, shows 1.86pt profit over the season so far, £186 to £100 stakes – Very high SR, but low ROI. Really not an approach I’d recommend, but it does show the bias. Backing Oxford away would net you a nice 200% ROI so far this seaon.
- BET365 Odds. We take our odds from Bet365 as it’s the easiest, and they’re often the best price on Football markets. We can see, for example, Accrington are 15/2. However, looking at Goals scored (0.5) against Goals conceded (3.5) you can see that 15/2 just isn’t a good enough price for value. Let’s look at Burton v Oxford – A fairly open market. With both teams in profit, and winning both home and away games previously, we look at goals. Overall, the Home side score 1.8 and concede 1.2, against the away team scoring 2.4 conceding 1.2 (double). So we can see both score more than they concede, meaning it could be a very tight game (0-0), or a goals galore (4+). With a 60% and 100% BTTS record, it seems more likely that it will be a GG, so an overs bet on 2.5 goals would potentially be a little value in your accumulators.
- First Half Goals. It’s important to know who will take the commanding role, and who will be playing goal-catch-up in the second half, as well as just using this for the First Half Winners market. Looking at the same example of Oxford again, we can see on average they score in the first half. We can also see that Burton usually concede a goal in the first half too! So Oxford to be winning by half-time!
- Corners. A big market in Asia. This is all self-explanatory. However, note the Average Sum column. 13s and 14s usually go well, and can make a nice trebles prices on the over 11 goals markets.
Hopefully, this is all fairly easy to understand. I sometimes look at the raw data and numbers instead, but for an introduction to a ratings spreadsheet, this is a simple as it gets whilst maintaining the quality of the information.
You can contact me on twitter personally @JoeComins, DM the main account @FBL72, or email me for a private chat on firstname.lastname@example.org. If anyone doesn’t have Excel but would like to view this, message me and I’ll do a Google Docs Upload. If anyone is interested in making real money with the best horse racing data online, keep watching!